Worried about the election? Let's Talk...
2020 has already had more twists and turns than an HBO series.
And in last week's episode, the president contracted COVID. - Yikes.
I did not see that coming. Did you? I'm not being flippant about the president's diagnosis — his case is potentially serious and I wish him well in his recovery.
Let's talk about what could happen next.
A lot of things could happen, depending on how widespread the White House outbreak is and how severe the president's illness becomes.
As I write this, it doesn't look like the president has become unable to perform his duties. (Fortunately, there are legal mechanisms to pass executive power to the Vice President if the president becomes incapacitated.)
Though no president has ever contracted COVID-19, America has had multiple ill or incapacitated presidents. There's a roadmap.
However, the situation injects uncertainty into the election, Supreme Court confirmation, and the new stimulus bill.
Not to mention, folks were already worried that the election might not be decided on November 3. A high number of mail-in ballots means the drama could realistically play out for weeks after election day.
Could President Trump's illness postpone the election?
That seems unlikely. Technically, Congress could decide to delay the election, but I doubt they'd be able to make it happen before November 3.1
Will there be anarchy in the streets if there's no clear winner on election day?
No. We have legal and democratic means to resolve a contested election.
If no candidate receives the majority of electoral votes (270 or more), the election moves into overtime and a “contingent election” is held by the House.
Two presidential races (in 1800 and 1824) were decided by the House.
In 1876, a bipartisan commission reviewed ballots in three too-close-to-call states and awarded enough electoral votes to give Rutherford B. Hayes the win.2
In 2000, the Bush/Gore election went to the Supreme Court, which ended a Florida recount and gave George W. Bush the presidency.3
Will markets react to new election uncertainty with volatility?
That's highly likely, especially if the president's illness doesn't resolve quickly.
You already know that markets hate uncertainty and traders are revising, hedging, and re-hedging their bets as they digest this evolving situation.
As a historical example, here’s how markets performed during the 2000 election recount drama. In a word, volatility.
Let's keep in mind that markets have already been volatile with a stalling economic recovery, election season, and a continuing pandemic that will drag into 2021.
I think that business and economic fundamentals are currently driving markets, not election-related fears. We'll see if that changes as the month progresses.
Pay attention to the headlines you read and news you consume...
Be especially cautious about media that makes you feel anxious, angry, or afraid. Election cycles always bring heightened emotions and more negative news than usual.
Take a deep breath and step back if you need to. Call a friend. Call us at Callesen Wealth Management.
Are you really worried about what the election could mean for you? Thinking about moving to Canada and/or an underground bunker? Let's talk about it.
Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
Securities offered through IFP Securities, LLC, d/b/a Independent Financial Partners (IFP), member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through IFP Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Independent Financial Partners (IFP), a Registered Investment Adviser. IFP and Callesen Wealth Management are not affiliated. The information given herein is taken from sources that IFP Advisors, LLC, dba Independent Financial Partners (IFP), IFP Securities LLC, dba Independent Financial Partners (IFP), and it advisors believe to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. This is for informational purposes only and in no event should be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or products. Please consult your tax and/or legal advisor before implementing any tax and/or legal related strategies mentioned in this publication as IFP does not provide tax and/or legal advice. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual investors. The information contained in this message may be CONFIDENTIAL and is for the intended addressee only. Any unauthorized use, dissemination of the information, or copying of this message is prohibited. If you are not the intended addressee, please notify the sender immediately and delete this message.